The current member for the Mid North Coast seat, Leslie Williams, was voted in for her third term as a member of the National Party in 2019.

But she defected to the Liberal Party in September 2020 during the so-called koala wars, which saw then deputy premier John Barilaro threaten to split the Coalition.

While the premier at the time, Gladys Berejiklian, called his bluff and the Coalition remained intact, the stunt inadvertently saw Port Macquarie get its first ever Liberal member in state parliament.

Ahead of this month's election, the Nationals declared Port Macquarie's Mayor Peta Pinson as their candidate to run against Ms Williams, and in doing so ignited the first three-cornered contest with a coalition incumbent in 24 years at a NSW election.

Pinson pounces:

When Ms Pinson's pre-selection was announced at a community rally opposing a government-funded upgrade to the town's breakwall, Ms Williams said she would not be deterred from her campaign amid the "political games of the National Party".

"It's probably the worst-kept secret in Port Macquarie that the mayor was going to run for the Nationals," Ms Williams said at the time.

"[That's] despite the fact that she stood as an independent and vehemently told the community she was an independent candidate when the mayoral elections were on just 12 months ago."

Ms Pinson said she joined the National Party only a short time prior to being pre-selected.

"[The seat] was won by the National Party … so while [Leslie Williams] is the incumbent in the seat, it is being recontested by the National Party," Ms Pinson said.

"Regional Australia is represented by the National Party. The Liberals represent the metro and city areas. That is the deal of the Coalition and always has been."

NSW Nationals chairman Andrew Fraser said Ms Williams should have chosen to sit on the crossbench, calling the Liberal Party's decision to accept her request for membership a "treacherous act".

"We see [Port Macquarie] as our seat. We were disappointed the Liberal Party accepted her as a member … and the decision was made by both the central council and the local branch [of the National Party] to run [a candidate]," he said.

The NSW Liberal Party did not respond to a request for comment.

Ms Williams said she ultimately left the party because its policies, particularly in relation to koala protection, no longer aligned with her community, given Port Macquarie has one of the largest koala populations in NSW.

Koala Wars:

The koala wars erupted in 2020 over proposed planning regulations to protect the animals, including increasing the number of protected tree species that opponents said would restrict farmers from felling trees on their own land.

Fresh battles over koala policy have arisen since then, including over the related debate on the future of the native forest timber industry.

"This community is very clear about its position … and I wasn't going to stand by and not really express their views when it came to koala protection and the protection of the koala habitat in our local community," Ms Williams said.

Ms Pinson has previously said she believed the government was making "Incredible moves to protect the iconic species" and the biggest risks to the koala population were "motor vehicles or dog attacks as opposed to decimation of their habitat".

Peta "Not convinced" climate change man-made:

At a Meet the Candidates event last month, Ms Pinson said she was "Not convinced" climate change was man-made, based on "Alternate information" in now-debunked claims that NASA attributed climate change to the Earth's "solar orbit".

Deputy Premier Paul Toole said he supported his candidates being outspoken and that "you need to take in all sides" on issues such as climate change.

"We know that there is climate change but … the climate is always changing … as a party we continue to have a balanced view," Mr Toole said.

"Peta Pinson is a great Nationals candidate … she will make a great representative in the NSW parliament."

History of three-cornered contests in NSW:

The Coalition agreements that govern the relationship between the two parties have essentially stopped them from running against each other, in part to avoid doubling the campaign costs of two major conservative parties running in the same seat.

In Port Macquarie, which has traditionally been allocated as a Nationals seat, the door has once again been opened to a three-cornered contest.

"Leslie Williams switching party has sort of ended the agreement," Mr Green said.

"The Nationals are refusing to accept that the seat is now a Liberal-held seat … [they] view Port Macquarie as one of their seats and are determined to run."

A three-cornered contest is also being held in Wagga Wagga on March 25, but is held by an independent on a comfortable 15.5% margin.

Mr Green said the Nationals' complicated relationship with Port Macquarie dated back to losing the seat in a similar fashion when Rob Oakeshott resigned from the party in 2002 to become an independent, winning the seat as one the following year.

Oakeshott quit the party citing ideological differences and disagreements over the party's policies and staunch conservative values.

"When Rob Oakeshott resigned he made particular criticism of internal parts of National Party in the local area," Mr Green said.

"I think those disputes have continued and certainly the fact that Leslie Williams defected over the koala issue and its involvement with development on the North Coast has some influence there, I suspect."

Changing demographics:

Once a small regional area, Port Macquarie is now one of the fastest-growing towns in NSW, attracting students and young families in want of a sea-change.

"Compared to most National-held electorates, Port Macquarie is a very urban seat and the Liberal Party has wanted to run in the seat in the past," Mr Green said.

At the last federal election, the National party suffered a 9.6% swing against it in the seat of Cowper, against a teal independent.

At a state level, the Nationals have lost five seats since the 2015 election and currently hold just 12 of the 93 seats in the lower house.

The party's historical hesitancy to take a progressive position on climate change has begun to sour in some regional areas, particularly those impacted by drought, fires and floods.

Port Macquarie is considered a very safe seat with 63.6% of first preference votes going to Leslie Williams as the Nationals candidate, and 23.2% to Labor at the last election.

"It was a pretty overwhelming conservative seat and probably will remain that way," Mr Green said.

But Labor's preferences may end up deciding the winner.

Labor candidate Keith McMullen's How to Vote card does not designate any preferences, while the Liberal and National candidates are both directing voter preferences to each other - Butter or Margarine ?

Original Story By | Alexandra Jones