Tasmania also has significantly higher concentrations of the health problems linked to COVID-19 deaths, according to the Australian National University's (ANU) Centre for Social Research and Methods.

The centre recently developed a health index for Catholic Social Services Australia, which wanted to understand in which electorates its help was most needed.

Associate professor Ben Phillips said he considered heart problems, diabetes, asthma, obesity and other chronic conditions, as well as factors such as smoking and disabilities.

The result is effectively a measurement of the underlying health of a given community, and its level of health disadvantage compared to other areas.

Coincidentally, the index contained "effectively the same variables" associated with higher COVID-19 death rates, Dr Phillips said.

"We're saying nothing about where the infection rates will be greater or smaller," he said.

"But for a given infection rate — let's say 10 per cent — these are the areas where there may be more call on hospitals, greater levels of sickness and, unfortunately, greater death rates."

The areas of greatest health disadvantage are not necessarily the poorest regions, though having wealth helps.

Instead, higher risks align most closely with older populations - "That tends to mean rural areas and coastal areas," Dr Phillips said.

One exception is the Northern Territory. Its population is young but it includes many remote Aboriginal communities, which tend to have higher rates of chronic diseases.

Meanwhile, Sydneysiders, who live in the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in Australia, face relatively low health risks.

"The western suburbs might not be economically advantaged but [its residents] don't tend to be that old," Dr Phillips said.

Will coronavirus hit regional areas?

The population in regional Australia might be older and more at risk, but how likely is coronavirus to spread into these more sparsely populated parts of the country?

Professor Ross Andrews, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at the ANU, offered a grim prognosis.

"Based on what's happening in the rest of the world, at the moment you'd have to say — it'll get there," he said.

"Once the infection gets there, you'll see higher death rates and higher rates of complications that need acute intervention."

Professor Andrews said this was why the West Australian and Northern Territory governments were so concerned about keeping the disease out of remote Indigenous communities.

He said it was critical to prevent the infection from reaching at-risk populations for as long as possible, and ideally until a vaccine or effective anti-viral treatments were available.

"Flattening the curve is partly about trying to do that: stopping the infection from getting to these places," he said.

"The core thing that we know works is to isolate the sick people — that can break the chain of transition.

"If we manage to do that, we have much more hope."